Domestic capacity distribution of the most popular

2022-10-19
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"Bullish" white paperboard domestic production capacity distribution

release date: Source: public data collection

white paperboard is made entirely from chemical bleached wood pulp, with a quantitative range of 150 g/㎡ -400 g/㎡, with the advantages of small flexibility, good toughness, high folding resistance, uniform fiber structure, good ink absorption performance, and suitable for printing. According to its use, it can be divided into three categories: social card, cigarette card and food card. Social cards are commonly used in the packaging of drugs, electronic products, cosmetics and other consumer goods, accounting for about 60% of the consumption of white cards; Cigarette cards are mainly used for packaging cigarette boxes in China, accounting for about 2% of the consumption of white cards. The State Post Office has now encouraged enterprises to recycle express packages by 6%; Food cards are mainly used for various food packaging, with high safety requirements, accounting for about 14% of the consumption of white cards

domestic existing white cardboard production capacity and distribution characteristics

in recent years, China's white cardboard production capacity is relatively stable, and the new production capacity is less, and the new production capacity is all existing white cardboard enterprises. In 2019, only one paper machine of 750000 tons/year (actual capacity of 1million tons/year) in Jiangsu Bohui phase II was put into operation, and in 2020, only one 200000 tons/year paper machine of Xinxiang Xinya group, such as some beams and components that need to play a protective role in collision, released new capacity

China's white cardboard production capacity is relatively concentrated. By the end of 2020, there are 21 white cardboard production enterprises and 32 white cardboard production lines in China, with an annual production capacity of about 13 million tons, while the "four families" of APP group, Bohui, Chenming Group and sun have a total production capacity of 10.06 million tons, accounting for 77.4% of the total production capacity

with the acquisition of Bohui by app Jinguang group at the end of 2019, the production capacity of white cardboard is more highly concentrated. At present, only app golden light group accounts for 49.6% of the market share in the white cardboard market, holding the "top position" in China's white cardboard market, which will definitely put app in a more favorable position in the future market competition

reasons for the high concentration of white cardboard production capacity:

the entry threshold of foreign industries is high: at present, large and medium-sized paper mills in the white cardboard industry continue to increase investment, consolidate and expand market share through new projects, and the possibility of new entry of foreign enterprises is relatively small

paper mills pay more attention to product research and development, brand awareness and patent protection: the paper industry has entered the product maturity cycle. Enterprises have higher requirements for product technology research and development, production indicators, and enhanced awareness of brand maintenance and patent protection. These all have higher requirements for paper mills in production, technology, sales and other aspects. Only relatively mature large enterprises can rely on their strong capital Technical strength, sales channels and other resources have a high probability of winning, while the anti risk ability of small enterprises is much weaker

"bullish" white cardboard

white cardboard is one of the important high-end packaging paper in daily life. Because the market demand is increasing day by day, the market price of white cardboard has been rising steadily in recent years. Although there has been a transitional period of price downturn from 2011 to 2014 during this period, since the second half of 2015 began to rebound for the first time, this wave of price rise has continued until the end of 2016. Especially since 2021, the price has continued to rise, from the average price of less than 7500/ton in January to 8000/ton in early February. At the end of February, the price of mainstream white cardboard mills has been close to 9000/ton. In March, APP once again announced a one-time price increase/ton of white cardboard, and the price of white cardboard exceeded the 10000 mark for the first time, which is unprecedented. The crazy rise in the price of white cardboard is mainly due to the following reasons:

it needs to be expected to seek rapid improvement in a long period of time in the future

the new version of the "plastic restriction order" was issued on January 19, 2020, which made it clear that by the end of 2020, China will take the lead in banning and restricting the production, sales and use of some plastic products in some regions and fields. By the end of 2022, the consumption of disposable plastic products will be significantly reduced, and alternative products will be promoted. Subsequently, various regions have issued corresponding policies to promote the implementation of the "plastic restriction order"

with the continuous and in-depth promotion of the new version of "plastic restriction order", white cardboard has become a widely promising plastic substitute because of its mature manufacturing technology and safe use

the areas where white cardboard substitutes plastic products mainly include the replacement of plastic straw by paper straw, and the replacement of traditional disposable lunch boxes by paper lunch boxes. According to the calculation of Everbright Securities, if the white cardboard penetration rate of takeout box reaches 70% in 2025, the demand for white cardboard will be 1.45 million tons. In addition, paper mills have also begun to research and develop plastic free paper cups

it can be seen that the "plastic limit order" is undoubtedly the catalyst behind the sharp rise of white cardboard. The huge demand for replacement of white cardboard is also the main reason why the industry is optimistic about the fundamentals of white cardboard

in addition, 2021 is the first year of the implementation of the waste prohibition order. The waste paper gap is prominent, and the cost of white board paper increases. White board paper and white cardboard belong to small commodity packaging paper, and the demand for replacement of white board paper increases. In addition, in January this year, all the whiteboard mills in Fuyang, Zhejiang Province stopped production, vacated 1.05 million tons of whiteboard capacity, and the withdrawn whiteboard capacity will be replaced by white cardboard, further increasing the demand for white cardboard

the supply is slightly insufficient

the data shows that it is imperative to explore a new development path of plastic granulator technology for coniferous pulp in the coming years, with less new capacity, and there is basically no new coniferous pulp capacity in China in 2021. In the first 11 months of 2020, the import volume of China's coniferous pulp fell by 1.52%, and the global volume of coniferous pulp shipped to China fell by 9.6% in November. At present, the upstream and downstream inventories of the pulp industry chain remain at a normal low position, and the overall supply side is slightly tight

in addition, in the second quarter of this year, Ningbo, Zhejiang Province plans to relocate 600000 tons of white cardboard production capacity, and the supply of white cardboard will decline. At the same time, there is no new capacity in the country before the third quarter of 2021, and the output of white cardboard increased in the fourth quarter

pulp futures rose

this year, the price of pulp futures hit new highs, and the rising cost also contributed to the continuous rise in the price of white cardboard

pulp futures rose strongly since the beginning of November last year. On March 1, sp2103, the main contract of pulp futures in the previous stock exchange, hit a new high of 7790/ton. As of the closing on March 4, sp2103 was reported at 7352/ton, still at a high level

recently, pulp futures corrected briefly, but according to professional analysis, pulp prices are still bullish in the short term against the background of the general rise in the pulp and paper industry

the production capacity is highly centralized, and the leading pricing power and synergy are further strengthened

in the next five years, the new products of white card paper will be about 1900 tons, accounting for less than 23% in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, which is basically the continuation of the second/third phase of the early stage. The new capacity in Guangxi will account for 56% of the new capacity, mainly new construction. Among them, the new capacity of leading enterprises will account for more than 51% of the new capacity in Guangxi. It is expected that the white card capacity will reach 24.22 million tons in 2023, an increase of about 60% compared with 2021. It is expected that the capacity will continue to increase in 2025

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