The decline cycle of the hottest natural rubber is

Tianjiao: the decline cycle is not over yet

since the peak in early June, but the flat plate looks like a composite material, Shanghai Jiao has fallen for more than 12 weeks; However, judging from the cyclical law of price changes in the natural rubber market itself, it is difficult to say that the rubber price has bottomed out at present

although natural rubber is a resource commodity, its production process has the attribute of "crop year" of agricultural products, so the change of supply and demand of natural rubber also has a seasonal cycle. Judging from the price trend of Shanghai Automotive Lightweight imperative glue in the past five years, there are several typical cycle periods: the first period is from the end of November to march of the next year, which is the cut-off period in the production process of natural rubber. In the normal seasonal cycle, the first domestic aerogel gel enterprise was established in 2004 and achieved the success of aerogel gel powder pilot test in 2006. During this period, the price of glue will rise due to the cessation of supply. The second period is from early April to early July every year. During this period, with the continuous opening of natural rubber production areas, the supply continues to increase, and the rubber price tends to fall. In the Shanghai rubber futures market, this decline cycle is very obvious, with the exception of this year, during this period, there was an increase. The third period is from July to September every year, which is the intensive period of natural disasters such as typhoons and rainstorms in coastal rubber production areas. The most detailed experimental steps are easy to affect the supply of natural rubber, and the price of rubber usually rises during this period. The fourth period is from the end of September to the end of November every year. The production of natural rubber is generally going smoothly. The foam formed by high prices in the last price rise cycle gradually subsides, and the price tends to fall again

when the supply-demand relationship changes sharply, the extension or shortening of the price cycle will disrupt the inherent cycle. In some special years, the rubber price will show an anti seasonal cycle in one or two cycles. The change of rubber price this year is very representative. As the global supply and demand situation has fundamentally changed, three of the five major rubber producing countries have become natural rubber importing countries; In addition, the price of crude oil broke through the sky high price of $70 and remained high for a long time. From April to June this year, the price of natural rubber at home and abroad did not fall seasonally; On the contrary, during this period, the price of rubber soared at an unprecedented speed, and the price of Shanghai Rubber soared from less than 20000 yuan to more than 30000 yuan. The foam formed by the crazy rise could no longer maintain the high price in the rising cycle from July to September. After the anti seasonal rise, it is followed by the anti seasonal decline

if we only consider from the seasonal cycle, this round of decline will last until September at least. However, if we consider that the price rise has not occurred before, and that the current macro-economy is just at the cyclical inflection point when the growth rate reaches the peak and begins to fall, this decline in rubber prices may span the two cycles of July September and the end of September November. The reason is that in the stage of falling demand growth, it is difficult for prices to find the supporting factors to stimulate the sharp rise in prices in the decline cycle with sufficient supply from the end of September to the end of November

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