The decline in the overall performance of the powe

The overall performance of the power industry fell in 2008 or has become a set trend

industry analysts believe that the growth rate of power generation and consumption fell, reflecting the beginning of the slowdown in economic growth; For the power industry, the sharp decline in overall performance in 2008 has become a set trend, and some enterprises have difficulties in turning losses

according to the China Securities Journal on September 25, the China Electricity Council announced the operation of the power industry in August. Data show that China's above scale power generation increased by 5.1% year-on-year in August, down 11.5 percentage points from 16.6% in March. At the same time, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society also continued to fall. According to the analysis of insiders, the growth rate of power generation and consumption decreased, reflecting the effect of the government's macro-control, and the economic growth began to slow down

according to the data of China Electricity Council, since 2008, the growth rate of power generation of power plants above the national scale reached a peak in March, with an increase of 16.6% in that month; After that, it began to fall, with the monthly growth rates of 12.8%, 11.8%, 8.3%, 8.1% and 5.1% respectively. The growth rate in August was 11.5 percentage points lower than that in March. At the same time, the growth rate of social electricity consumption in 2008 also fell after reaching its peak in March. The year-on-year growth rate in March was 14.4%, and the monthly growth rates were 11.7%, 11.1%, 8.4%, 7.7% and 5.4% respectively. The growth rate in August was 9 percentage points lower than that in March

Soochow securities analysts said that in today's society, almost all economic activities should use electricity. The detection of materials with high experimental power requirements is more stable, and the process of power production and consumption are carried out at the same time. Looking at China's population base and national conditions, unlike other industries, products have inventory, which will affect the quasi host of statistical data. 1) peak power of power supply: ≤ 10 kW (including peripheral installations such as cooling and high-temperature installation); Accuracy causes certain interference, so the change of power growth rate can reflect the change of economic activities in a timely and accurate manner. The data from the National Bureau of statistics also showed that in 2008, the growth rate of national industrial added value was 15.4%, 17.8%, 15.7%, 16.0%, 16.0%, 14.7% and 12.8% respectively year-on-year. It was also the peak in March, and the decline in August was also large, and its trend was basically consistent with the growth of electric power

from the perspective of power consumption by industry, according to the analysis of China Electricity Council, the growth rate of power consumption in the secondary industry has always been lower than that of the whole society since 2008, and we will encounter that the growth rate of power consumption in the tertiary industry of new materials and urban and rural residents has been higher than that of the whole society every day The growth rate of electricity consumption in the secondary industry in June was 1.21, 1.1, 0.82, 0.54, 0.30 and 0.29 percentage points lower than that of the whole society. This means that the obvious decline in the growth rate of electricity consumption in the secondary industry is the most important factor for the decline in the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society. In fact, what the government has strengthened regulation and control is also the aspect of high energy consumption in the secondary industry, especially small enterprises without economies of scale. This shows that the government's regulation has been effective, and the overheating of some industries has been curbed

for the fourth quarter of 2008, Wang Fan, an analyst at Ping An Securities, said that the period from September 1 to September 20 is still during the Olympic production restriction, and the rebound in power demand may be relatively limited. The rebound after October should be more obvious, but the rebound should not be too optimistic

according to Wang Fan's analysis, the recent decline and growth rate of power consumption is relatively fast, especially the sharp decline in the growth rate of power consumption in August compared with July, which can no longer be explained by the supply factor of power coal, but should be attributed to the changes on the demand side. According to the statistics of the State Grid Corporation of China, the number of coal shortage shutdowns in the State Grid continued to fall in August. She analyzed that the growth rate of electricity consumption in August was lower than that in July, of which about 1/3 could be explained by Olympic factors, and the remaining 2/3 could only be explained by macroeconomic factors. The impact of macroeconomic slowdown on the growth rate of power generation may exceed market expectations

however, analysts at Donghai securities believe that the low temperature and excessive rainfall in China in the summer of 2008 are also an important factor, resulting in a decrease in residents' electricity consumption in summer. In addition, the deterioration of the export environment is also an influencing factor

Wang Fan said that for the power industry, the sharp decline in the overall performance of 2008 has become a set trend, and some enterprises have difficulties in turning losses. Even if the coal price remains relatively stable in 2009, the profitability of thermal power enterprises will still be lower than that in 2007. It is expected that the average roe level of the industry will be less than 5%, which is not enough to support the sustainable development of the industry in the long run

however, according to the analysis of insiders, this change in China's economic growth is mainly due to the government's active regulation of the economy and the impact of the Olympic Games, and the relatively uncontrollable factor is the deterioration of the foreign trade environment. Therefore, at present, China's economy is only slowing down, not recession